Nigeria’s thirst for petrol appears to be cooling, at least temporarily. Fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals that the nation’s average daily petrol consumption dropped to 56.9 million litres in February 2025, a noticeable decline from the 60.2 million litres consumed daily in January.
The numbers paint a picture of shifting dynamics in Nigeria’s fuel market, with implications for consumers, marketers, and policymakers alike.
Dangote Refinery Supply Also Takes a Dip
The much-anticipated Dangote Refinery, which has gradually become a key player in Nigeria’s petroleum landscape, also recorded reduced output during the same period. Daily supply from the facility fell to 36.5 million litres in February, down from 40.1 million litres in January.
Overall domestic petrol supply experienced an even sharper decline—plummeting from 64.9 million litres per day in January to just 39.6 million litres per day in February. This dramatic drop signals significant shifts in how Nigeria sources and distributes petrol as local refining capacity continues to develop.
State-Owned Refineries: Still on the Sidelines
Despite ongoing rehabilitation efforts, Nigeria’s three state-owned refineries—Port Harcourt, Kaduna, and Warri—contributed absolutely nothing to petrol production during February.
The Port Harcourt Refinery remained shut, though previously refined diesel continued to trickle into the market at about 0.392 million litres daily. Kaduna Refinery was similarly closed but managed to release existing diesel stocks at approximately 0.027 million litres per day. The Warri Refinery? Zero petrol production.
For many Nigerians who have waited years—even decades—for these refineries to roar back to life, the silence continues to be deafening.
Modular Refineries Step Up for Diesel
While state refineries struggle, Nigeria’s smaller modular refineries are quietly making their mark, particularly in diesel production.
The WalterSmith Refinery operated at nearly 60 percent capacity, churning out about 0.112 million litres of diesel daily. The Edo Refinery and Petrochemicals Company performed even better, hitting 81.66 percent capacity utilisation and supplying approximately 0.085 million litres of diesel per day. The Aradel Refinery also contributed around 0.171 million litres daily, operating at about 34 percent capacity.
However, two facilities—OPAC Refinery and Duport Refinery—remained inactive throughout the month.
Diesel Supply Shows Improvement
There’s some good news amidst the petrol decline: diesel availability actually improved in February. Supply of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) rose to 24.4 million litres per day, up from 18.9 million litres in January.
This increase was driven by contributions from the modular refineries and the continued evacuation of previously refined diesel from state-owned facilities.
For commercial transporters, manufacturers, and businesses that depend heavily on diesel generators due to Nigeria’s persistent power challenges, this uptick offers some relief—though prices remain a concern.
What Does This Mean for Nigerians?
The drop in petrol consumption could reflect several factors: higher fuel prices dampening demand, improved efficiency, or simply economic pressures forcing Nigerians to cut back on fuel use. It could also indicate shifts in transportation patterns or increased adoption of alternative transport options in some urban areas.
As Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector continues evolving—with Dangote Refinery ramping up, modular refineries finding their footing, and state refineries undergoing endless rehabilitation—the coming months will be crucial in determining whether local refining can truly end the nation’s dependence on imported petrol.
For now, the numbers tell a story of transition, adjustment, and uncertainty in Nigeria’s complex fuel market.
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